The NFL quarterback world is starting to return to its normal axis, while Tua Tagovailoa continues to play like he’s from another galaxy.
Then there’s Joshua Dobbs and C.J. Stroud displaying steady improvement, while Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow still linger among the bottom half of the league’s passers. And, of course, a certain New York Jets quarterback can’t escape his typical landing spot.
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Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added per dropback, to provide a number-based outlook on the state of the position.
I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 4.
(Quarterbacks are listed by overall EPA per dropback rankings, via TruMedia)
Nos. 1-8
| Player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 3 | Pass rtg ovr | Pass rtg Wk 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.58 (1) | 0.95 (1) | 121.9 (1) | 155.8 (1) | |
0.23 (2) | 0.35 (4) | 106.3 (4) | 111.3 (7) | |
0.23 (3) | 0.35 (5) | 112.9 (2) | 123.8 (3) | |
0.17 (4) | 0.59 (2) | 99.5 (6) | 127.3 (2) | |
0.16 (5) | 0.26 (7) | 90.3 (16) | 79.9 (20) | |
0.15 (6) | -0.06 (20) | 94.7 (13) | 66.4 (26) | |
0.15 (7) | 0.10 (12) | 101.6 (5) | 85.8 (14) | |
0.14 (8) | 0.13 (9) | 98.2 (8) | 87.3 (13) |
Tua’s numbers through three weeks are historic. His 0.58 EPA rate ranks second among all quarterbacks in any season through Week 3 dating back to 2000. Only Tom Brady’s 0.64 rate in 2007 (the season New England went undefeated until the Super Bowl) stands taller than Tagovailoa’s 2023 start. Two keys to Tua’s success: pressure percentage per dropback and time to throw. The Miami Dolphins quarterback is the least-pressured passer this season (21.2 percent) including only 7.7 percent of his dropbacks in during the Week 3 demolition of the Denver Broncos. That’s the third-lowest single-game pressure rate for a qualified QB since 2013. Tagovailoa is also the fastest QB to unload the football with a 2.21-second average time-to-throw mark through three games.
Brock Purdy is not only starting off where he left off last season (minus the whole arm injury thing), but the San Francisco 49ers quarterback has shown notable improvements on some of his 2022 rates and is getting the ball out faster:
EPA per dropback
- 2022: 0.15
- 2023: 0.23
EPA per dropback on blitzes
- 2022: 0.14
- 2023: 0.26
Time to throw
- 2022: 2.66
- 2023: 2.45
The Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert is living up to his new lucrative contract from this offseason. He’s already well above his EPA rate (0.04) and passer rating (93.2) from 2022. Plus, Herbert leads the NFL with a 74.4 completion percentage after an exceptional 85.1 percent completion rate in the wild win over the Minnesota Vikings. Like Purdy, Herbert is unloading the ball faster this year (2.42 seconds per dropback) than last year (2.71) and being pressured less often (35.9 percent pressure rate in 2022, 27.8 percent in 2023).
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All Patrick Mahomes needed was the Chicago Bears and Taylor Swift in attendance for Week 3 to bring his metrics back to normal. The Kansas City Chiefs passer produced Mahomes-esque numbers in the blowout of Chicago.
The same could almost be said for Josh Allen in the Buffalo Bills’ beatdown of the Washington Commanders, except for the mediocre Week 3 passer rating. What helped Allen’s Week 3 EPA rate was that his TD run came on a dropback, rather than a designed run.
The New Orleans Saints defense seemed well on its way to befuddling a third opposing QB in as many weeks. Jordan Love yielded a -0.22 EPA rate and 56.9 passer rating through the first three quarters of the Green Bay Packers’ Week 3 comeback win. But Love’s 0.20 fourth-quarter EPA rate helped the Packers overcome a 17-0 deficit. A disclaimer: Love’s TD run wasn’t considered a “dropback” since it came on a designed read-option run. And here’s my weekly concern over Love’s overall completion percentage, which has fallen each week this season.
(UPDATE: Love produced a -0.32 EPA rate and 69.9 passer rating in the Packers’ Week 4 loss to the Detroit Lions. He now carries a 0.02 EPA rate and 88.0 passer rating through four games.)
Jared Goff faced far more resistance from the Atlanta Falcons defense in Week 3 than the Lions passer endured in Week 2 (0.29 EPA rate, 121.8 passer rating) against the Seattle Seahawks. Goff only targeted four pass-catchers in the Week 3 win. But Goff showed marked improvement against the blitz in Week 3 with a 0.71 EPA rate. That performance bumped his season EPA against an added rush to -0.20 (26th overall), which shows his issues in those spots in the first two weeks.
(UPDATE: Goff finished with a -0.04 EPA rate and 86.9 passer rating in the Lions’ Week 4 win over the Packers. Goff now yields a 0.10 EPA rate and 98.4 passer rating through four weeks.)
Geno Smith yielded a solid EPA rate in the Seahawks’ Week 3 win over the Carolina Panthers. He thrived against the blitz with a 0.78 EPA rate. Andy Dalton wasn’t too far behind when filling in for No. 1 pick Bryce Young. But Dalton vastly differed against the blitz with a -0.36 EPA rate. And Dalton set a single-game career high with 58 passing attempts.
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Nos. 9-17
| Player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 3 | Pass rtg ovr | Pass rtg Wk 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.12 (9) | -0.01 (14) | 90.6 (15) | 78.0 (21) | |
0.11 (10) | 0.11 (11) | 88.4 (17) | 88.4 (12) | |
0.08 (11) | 0.29 (6) | 98.1 (9) | 120.0 (5) | |
0.08 (12) | -0.01 (15) | 108.2 (3) | 97.7 (10) | |
0.08 (13) | -0.14 (21) | 96.0 (11) | 73.1 (22) | |
0.07 (14) | -0.01 (16) | 81.4 (24) | 72.5 (23) | |
0.06 (15) | -0.20 (25) | 74.5 (27) | 66.4 (27) | |
0.05 (16) | 0.39 (3) | 98.0 (10) | 118.8 (6) | |
-0.01 (17) | -0.25 (28) | 99.5 (7) | 83.9 (17) |
The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott yielded below-average numbers for quarterbacks in Week 3. And yelling about Prescott’s late-game interception in the end zone might make for popular fodder. But …
How about Dobbs against the vaunted Cowboys defense? Those Week 3 rates! That 81.0 completion percentage in the Arizona Cardinals’ upset win! He’s also fifth overall against the blitz through three games with a 0.31 EPA rate. That’s two weeks in a row in which Dobbs gave the Cardinals every chance to win.
Kirk Cousins keeps racking up the yards and the touchdowns. But his inefficiencies on third down, lack of scoring on 50 attempts and the game-ending interception in the end zone sagged the Minnesota Vikings quarterback’s EPA rate in the loss to the Chargers.
Baker Mayfield came back to Earth a bit against the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s gone 4-4 in his last eight games between playing for the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The wins came against the Las Vegas Raiders, Broncos, Vikings and Bears. Mayfield yielded a 0.13 EPA rate and 96.0 passer rating in those games. The losses came against the Packers, Chargers, Seahawks and Eagles. He produced a -0.28 EPA and 66.9 passer rating in those losses.
The Raiders’ Jimmy Garoppolo is certainly tumbling after another tough week, this time in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. His overall EPA rate was 0.41 after Week 1, down to 0.15 after Week 2 and now 0.07 after Week 3. The Week 3 loss was only the second time in his career that he threw three interceptions. The other occurred during his first start of the 2018 season in Week 1 with the 49ers.
Matthew Stafford’s single-game rates have fallen the last two weeks as the Rams quarterback navigates life without Cooper Kupp:
EPA per dropback
- Week 1: 0.45
- Week 2: -0.01
- Week 3: -0.20
Passer rating
- Week 1: 91.3
- Week 2: 67.8
- Week 3: 66.4
You might want to start paying attention to Stroud. The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 pick nestled his way between Mahomes and Purdy in finishing with the third-best EPA rate of the week following the Houston Texans’ win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. This included an outstanding 0.89 rate against the blitz (No. 2 in Week 3). Stroud put up very good rates last week as well (0.14 EPA, 103.5 passer rating).
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Russell Wilson didn’t give up 70 points. His Week 3 EPA wasn’t good, but maybe let’s point the finger elsewhere for the Denver Broncos’ issues this round. Wilson literally needed to be Week-3-Tua awesome to stand a chance against the Dolphins.
Nos. 18-25
| Player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 3 | Pass rtg ovr | Pass rtg Wk 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.03 (18) | -0.02 (17) | 85.2 (20) | 104.6 (9) | |
-0.04 (19) | -0.24 (26) | 95.5 (12) | 88.4 (11) | |
-0.07 (20) | -0.19 (23) | 91.3 (14) | 82.3 (18) | |
-0.07 (21) | N/A | 78.2 (26) | N/A | |
-0.08 (22) | 0.07 (13) | 87.7 (19) | 85.6 (15) | |
-0.10 (23) | -0.05 (19) | 84.5 (22) | 71.6 (24) | |
-0.14 (24) | -0.24 (27) | 70.0 (29) | 64.2 (28) | |
-0.15 (25) | -0.32 (29) | 83.2 (23) | 70.2 (25) |
The Saints offense finally scored a touchdown in the first half as Derek Carr a 105.2 passer rating at halftime against the Packers. Then came the right shoulder injury early in the third quarter that will keep him “week-to-week.” Jameis Winston will be back for his third shot at being New Orleans’ starter in the past three seasons. In his first six starts with the Saints in 2021 (tore his ACL in the seventh), Winston ranked ninth in EPA rate at 0.19 and fifth in passer rating at 108.1. He wasn’t so good in his three starts to open last season: -0.07 EPA rate, 79.5 passer rating.
Lamar Jackson amassed a 0.35 EPA rate … per rush with 101 rushing yards and two TDs on 14 carries. That ranked fifth among players with at least 14 rushes or targets in Week 3. Obviously, that’s what kept the Baltimore Ravens in the game against the Indianapolis Colts. The dropback rate and passer rating weren’t nearly as good as Week 2 (0.26 EPA per dropback, 112.8 passer rating).
Pretty convenient for this piece that the Colts’ Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson are parked next to each other. Minshew did just enough in a so-so outing to help the Colts to an overtime win over the Ravens, even after unknowingly stepping out the back of the end zone for a safety.
Mac Jones etched out his best single-game EPA rate in Week 3 since Week 12 of last season. It occurred despite the New England Patriots quarterback only completing 51.7 percent of his passes. A small victory for Jones in a small victory for the New England Patriots over the New York Jets.
The Eagles are 3-0 and Hurts hasn’t been the same player that we watched last season. That’s pretty remarkable. Hurts’ -0.05 EPA rate was his best of this season. That’s not great. His Week 3 passer rating was his worst this season. Also not great. Of course, his QB sneaks for TDs don’t play into his EPA rate since they’re designed runs. He holds a 0.03 EPA per rush/target ranking, 12th among all players (minimum 30 intended touches) through three weeks.
The Giants mustered 150 yards of total offense in their loss to the 49ers and Daniel Jones’ rates were equally unimpressive. It’s been a pretty rotten start for the New York quarterback outside of the second-half rally in Week 2 against Arizona. Jones has compiled his lowest EPA rate and second-lowest passer rating in a Week 1-3 span of his five-year career.
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Desmond Ridder’s four-game winning streak ended in Week 3 after posting his lowest single-game EPA rate and second-lowest passer rating of his eight starts with the Atlanta Falcons. That said, there are a few quarterbacks with worse overall rates than Ridder whose teams are also 2-1. But it can’t be just me that feels like Ridder is just … there.
Nos. 26-34
| Player | EPA/DB ovr | EPA/DB wk 3 | Pass rtg ovr | Pass rtg Wk 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.20 (26) | 0.11 (10) | 87.8 (18) | 123.4 (4) | |
-0.20 (27) | -0.04 (18) | 84.5 (21) | 85.3 (16) | |
-0.22 (28) | -0.16 (22) | 66.2 (33) | 59.8 (31) | |
-0.24 (29) | -0.74 (33) | 74.1 (28) | 41.5 (33) | |
-0.25 (30) | N/A | 66.6 (32) | N/A | |
-0.25 (31) | -0.58 (32) | 67.7 (31) | 58.7 (32) | |
-0.25 (32) | 0.19 (8) | 80.2 (25) | 108.5 (8) | |
-0.27 (33) | -0.49 (31) | 67.7 (30) | 62.8 (29) | |
-0.30 (34) | -0.39 (30) | 57.0 (34) | 61.9 (30) |
Deshaun Watson put together the best single-game passer rating and completion percentage (81.8 percent), along with the second-best EPA rate of his Cleveland Browns career in the team’s Week 3 win over the Tennessee Titans. It’s also only the second time Watson finished a Browns start with a positive EPA rate and passer rating above 91.5. But Watson found issues against the Titans’ blitz with a -0.55 EPA (30th in Week 3) and continued a tough trend in those spots this season (-0.35 EPA, 31st).
The Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence ranks last (34th) in EPA rate when blitzed at -0.42. Last season, Lawrence ranked ninth in those situations with a 0.12 rate, which was also his overall rate. In the last seven games (postseason included), Lawrence has compiled a -0.10 EPA rate and 80.9 passer rating. It also hasn’t helped this year that Calvin Ridley leads in the NFL with four drops and Christian Kirk isn’t far behind with two of his own.
No one knows when Burrow will start looking like Burrow again as he plays through the lingering calf injury. His 59.8 passer rating in the Cincinnati Bengals’ win over the Rams was the second-worst single-game mark of his career. The worst? Week 1 this season at 52.2. There’s also an obvious disconnect with Tee Higgins, who has the NFL’s second-worst reception percentage at 35.7 percent (minimum 10 targets, 143 pass catchers) and is tied for second with three drops.
Sam Howell is coming off the worst start of his early NFL career as the Washington Commanders took a pummeling from the Bills in Week 3. He yielded the worst single-game EPA rate and fourth-worst passer rating of any quarterback through three weeks in his zero-TD, four-interception, nine-sack outing (19 sacks this season). This came on the heels of the best game of his career with a 0.21 EPA rate and 108.8 passer rating against the Broncos.
Similarly, it’s been feast or famine for the Titans’ Ryan Tannehill:
EPA per dropback
- Week 1: -0.35
- Week 2: 0.08
- Week 3: -0.49
Passer rating
- Week 1: 28.8 (single-game career low)
- Week 2: 123.3
- Week 3: 62.8
Some signs of positivity for the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett. He produced his best single-game passer rating and second best EPA rate vs. the blitz (0.63) in the Week 3 win against the Raiders.
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As far as Zach Wilson, no reason to pile on. Wilson’s Week 3 EPA rate and passer rating were only his seventh and ninth worst rates, respectively, of his career. So he’s been worse.
Week 4 defense vs. QB EPA matchups
| team | EPA/DB | Player | EPA/DB ovr |
|---|---|---|---|
0.50 (1) | Lamar Jackson | -0.04 (19) | |
0.38 (2) | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.58 (1) | |
0.24 (3) | Zach Wilson | -0.30 (34) | |
0.18 (4) | Joshua Dobbs | 0.08 (11) | |
0.17 (5) | Mac Jones | -0.08 (22) | |
0.14 (6) | Deshaun Watson | -0.20 (26) | |
0.13 (7) | Baker Mayfield | 0.08 (13) | |
0.12 (8) | Matthew Stafford | 0.06 (15) | |
0.11 (9) | Dak Prescott | 0.12 (9) | |
0.11 (10) | C.J. Stroud | 0.05 (16) | |
0.07 (11) | Ryan Tannehill | -0.27 (33) | |
0.05 (12) | Josh Allen | 0.16 (5) | |
0.04 (13) | Jared Goff | 0.15 (7) | |
0.04 (14) | Kirk Cousins | 0.08 (12) | |
0.04 (15) | Jameis Winston | N/A | |
0.01 (16) | Sam Howell | -0.24 (29) | |
0.00 (17) | Jordan Love | 0.15 (6) | |
-0.01 (18) | Anthony Richardson* | -0.07 (21) | |
-0.03 (19) | Jalen Hurts | -0.10 (23) | |
-0.03 (20) | Brock Purdy | 0.23 (2) | |
-0.04 (21) | Desmond Ridder | -0.15 (25) | |
-0.07 (22) | Kenny Pickett | -0.25 (32) | |
-0.07 (23) | Trevor Lawrence | -0.20 (27) | |
-0.13 (24) | Patrick Mahomes | 0.17 (4) | |
-0.14 (25) | Andy Dalton* | 0.11 (10) | |
-0.21 (26) | Joe Burrow | -0.22 (28) | |
-0.28 (27) | Justin Herbert | 0.23 (3) | |
-0.30 (28) | Daniel Jones | -0.14 (24) | |
-0.31 (29) | Jimmy Garoppolo* | 0.07 (14) | |
-0.35 (30) | Russell Wilson | -0.01 (17) | |
-0.36 (31) | Geno Smith | 0.14 (8) | |
-0.53 (32) | Justin Fields | -0.25 (31) |
- Richardson (concussion) appears on his way to starting in Week 4 against the Rams.
- The Panthers are up in the air with Young (ankle) and Dalton, but Young is trending toward starting Sunday.
- Garoppolo is in concussion protocol, making his Week 4 availability tenuous.
- The Saints are a question mark with Carr (shoulder) and Winston.
(Top photo of Tua Tagovailoa: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
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